D1 Nationals Bids Projections

[WeakSauce]

*DISCLAIMER- ALL SPECULATION*

It's that time of year again... Bid Selection week '07.

Post who you think deserves bids. Keep in mind overall schedule, strength of schedule, regionals, yada yada etc.

I'll start-

Eastern
Rhode Island
Rochester IT
Suny Buffalo
Towson

Great Plains
Lindenwood

Midwest
Eastern Michigan
Michigan St.
Michigan
Ohio St.

Rocky Mountain
Denver
Colorado St.

Southeastern
Florida International
NC State
Central Florida

Southwestern
North Texas
Texas

West
CSU San Bernardino
UC Irvine
Cal Poly SLO
UC Davis


Alternates (In order)
Florida
Connecticut
Purdue
Missouri-Colombia
South Carolina


The regional upsets of Eastern Michigan, Denver, and CSU San Bernardino, respectively, made choosing teams really difficult for me... Personally, I wouldn't want to be on the board making those decisions.

[ninerfan55]

ecrha
towson
rit
buffalo
rhode island

great plains
lindenwood

midwest
michigan st.
eastern michigan
michigan
ohio state
purdue

rocky mountain
colorado st.

southeast
nc state
florida international
central florida
florida

southwest
north texas
texas


west
uc irvine
cal poly slo
csu san bernadino

alternates
south florida
connecticut
western michigan

[sanford]

i havent been following d1 too much but the way that teams are selected it may be difficult for that ecrha to field 4 teams. i can see RIT being passed up for a while but as soon as they are selected towson and uri should be the next two to be picked right away. uri looked really good in the semis but buffalos goalie stood on his head in overtime.

[PMoyer3]

The west coast will be interesting because no team seams to have any dominance over any other team. There are four teams that are VERY deserving of nationals bids and it would be a shame if any of the following four were not selected:
CSU San Bernardino
UC Irvine
Chapman University
Cal Poly SLO

The WCRHL has been the more competitive this year than any other previous years. Every game in Division 1 was a toss up as it seemed anyone could win at any time.

Without a doubt these team will do well at nationals this year.

[WeakSauce]

Sanford- It is going to be crazy, isn't it? I see your point, but I still think the ECRHA will field 4 no problem.

Ninerfan55- Is there something I dont know about South Florida? Granted, I'm no expert on the SECRHL, but I see a team that is less than .500, and has 3 wins against B teams that counted towards their overall record, not to mention an absymal regionals.

I can definately see where you're coming from putting Florida in, but why South Florida as the #1 alternate?

Also, Purdue is borderline, I dunno if you could justify 5 teams from any division at Nationals... especially when Purdue has 5 wins from games with D2 teams on their record. (correct me if I'm wrong, but D1 MCRHL is considered stronger than D2) Not to mention not winning a game at regionals.

IMO, UC Davis and Denver are both more deserving...

Not trying to argue, just want to see where other people are coming from- feel free to counter any points I made, I'm definately not the authority on all things D1...

[William Bourque]

i havent been following d1 too much but the way that teams are selected it may be difficult for that ecrha to field 4 teams. i can see RIT being passed up for a while but as soon as they are selected towson and uri should be the next two to be picked right away. uri looked really good in the semis but buffalos goalie stood on his head in overtime.


RIT won the auto bid from the ECRHA, they are already heading to national reguardless of the selection committe thinks...

Buffalo, Rhode Island and Towson are no brainers and should be heading along with RIT...


The real question is does the ECRHA deserve 5 DI teams...Both teams listed can compete nationally, however, im not so sure if they are more deserving than others

#5 SUNY Binghamton
#6 Rutgers

[WeakSauce]

PMoyer3-
If they base it most heavily on regionals, then Chapman might get a look, but you can't look past the fact that at one point they lost 10 of 11 games in a row, and had a losing record... I think UC Davis will come out of the west before Chapman, and UC Davis is borderline in my book too.

[William Bourque]

PMoyer3-
If they base it most heavily on regionals, then Chapman might get a look, but you can't look past the fact that at one point they lost 10 of 11 games in a row, and had a losing record... I think UC Davis will come out of the west before Chapman, and UC Davis is borderline in my book too.

that does hurt, most of the time, regionals is the best judge though because most teams have full line ups, and every is playing for their season

[WeakSauce]

Hey William, just curious, is Connecticut considered lesser than Binhampton and Rutgers, despite the record?

I too think its an obvious 4 from the ECRHA

P.S.- It's true, but Chapman was 7-12-1 before regionals, and I dont think that cuts it.

Compare
Chapman 7-12-1 (0-2 vs UC Davis)
UC Davis 11-7-1

[Dave Garland]

Great Plains will certainly have more than one Division 1 team going to nationals.

Lindenwood
Missouri-Columbia
Illinois (bubble)
Illinois State (bubble)

[SnakeHandler]

Eastern
Rhode Island
Rochester IT
Suny Buffalo
Towson

Great Plains
Lindenwood

Midwest
Eastern Michigan
Michigan St.
Michigan
Ohio St.

Rocky Mountain
Denver
Colorado St.

Southeastern
Florida International
NC State
Central Florida
Florida

Southwestern
North Texas
Texas

West
CSU San Bernardino
UC Irvine
Cal Poly SLO


Alt - UC Davis

[PMoyer3]

weaksauce-
You are right, I kind of overlooked UC Davis. But...As I understand it in the west the bids are given out based on regionals. The regionals champion receives the #1 bid, the regular season champ receives the #2 bid, the regionals runner up receives the #3 bid and the regionals 2nd runner up gets the #4 bid and so on. I do beleive that UC Davis has had a much better season and are deserving of a nationals bid.

Without a doubt UC Davis would win some games at Nationals. It is just unfortunate the way regionals turned out for them. UC Davis was the only team we hadn't beaten all season until regionals when we final stepped it up against them.

[ISFN]

1 Great Plains D1 team?

That seems a little odd, just because we have the best D1 team doesn't mean the others shouldn't get respect.

Alot of you are just looking at points because I know you havn't been to the other regions and I think thats why your opioins are for only 1 GP D1 team. I believe all the D1 teams play LU 3 or 4 times and you know thoes are losses for anyone from any region so thoes 6 or 8 points could make a huge difference if say they were in another region.

Mizzou and U of I have like 18 and 19 points, now thats alot considering they play LU and SCC for a combine say 6 or 7 games, now thats 12 or 14 points and thats huge that would put them right with everyone else.

I'm not saying at all that they can beat LU but I know just from nationals last year they could do well, I know alot of the Mizzou guys and they just "dont care" because they know they wont get that Auto Bid from the GP region so they have the "I dont care, it dont matter" attitude.

[WeakSauce]

PMoyer3-
Interesting take on it, I for one think UC Davis would fair a lot better than Chapman at Nationals... but we'll have to see what happens.

I just noticed you were from SLO. Personally, I think you guys are the team to beat from the west, in my mind you are the most balanced and deep, regardless of a whacked-out regionals. Before last weekend, I didnt have San Bernardino or Chapman making the cut... guess we'll have to wait and see.

[SnakeHandler]

it is weird to give only one bid to great plains... BUT some might consider it pointless for teams to compete with lindenwood who have had their shots already, and havent come anywhere close at all. so......... i might just think that it's better to give the benefit of the doubt to other regions.. even though lindenwood is the national favorite.

[WeakSauce]

ISFN- Personally, I negated the playing LU 3-4 times a year with playing Middle Tenn. St. and Missouri-Rolla 5-6 times a year... not every division has a team, not to mention two teams, to beat up on like that either.

That being said, Missouri-Columbia is one of my bubble teams. After U of I lost to Missouri-Columbia at regionals, I dont expect them to get a bid.

[ISFN]

it is weird to give only one bid to great plains... BUT some might consider it pointless for teams to compete with lindenwood who have had their shots already, and havent come anywhere close at all. so......... i might just think that it's better to give the benefit of the doubt to other regions.. even though lindenwood is the national favorite.


I agree, Kinda.

But remember it only takes 1 game to beat them not a best of 3 so you never know.

I think regions need to try and creat a annual region vs. region tournament at the beginning of the year much like in college basketball, big10 vs acc challenge, etc...

Great Plains could easily do it with Midwest and Midwest could do it with East and so on, that would help much like it does in college bball seedings with the national bids it gives people a better idea of where teams stand.

[William Bourque]

The two other GP DI teams who went to nationals outside of Lindenwood went a combined 1-8-0

[PMoyer3]

ECRHA
Rhode Island
Rochester IT
Suny Buffalo
Towson

Great Plains
Lindenwood
Missouri-Columbia

Midwest
Eastern Michigan
Michigan St.
Michigan


Rocky Mountain
Denver
Colorado St.

Southeastern
Florida International
NC State
Central Florida


Southwestern
North Texas
Texas

West
CSU San Bernardino
UC Irvine
Chapman
Cal Poly SLO


Alt - UC Davis, Ohio St., Florida

It is hard to judge the skill of Missouri Columbia but for this pick i went with the nationals home rink so it would suck for that region to only have one team.

[RevisonHockey]

Weak Sauce..

In regards to the wcrhl bids. Chapman was missing 2 of its top 3 players for 2 tournaments out of that streak where they lost 10 of 12. I believe this is why the WCRHL as well as other regions may base bids more heavily on regionals. While UC Davis had a great year and is very deserving...everyone seems to agree that UCI, SLO, and San Bernardino deserve to go. Well, Chapman played 5 games at regionals and 4 of them were against those teams.

Results...win vs. CSUSB, loss by 1 goal to UCI, win vs. SLO, and Loss in Final 5-3 to CSUSB.

Certainly that is no easy draw and perfect proof that they are right there with those teams. While you compare UCDavis losing 8-0 to SLO and 5-2 to CSUSB. I think that really tells the true story..but I of course am biased.

[ISFN]

ECRHA
Rhode Island
Rochester IT
Suny Buffalo
Towson

Great Plains
Lindenwood
Missouri-Columbia

Midwest
Eastern Michigan
Michigan St.
Michigan


Rocky Mountain
Denver
Colorado St.

Southeastern
Florida International
NC State
Central Florida


Southwestern
North Texas
Texas

West
CSU San Bernardino
UC Irvine
Chapman
Cal Poly SLO


Alt - UC Davis, Ohio St.

It is hard to judge the skill of Missouri Columbia but for this pick i went with the nationals home rink so it would suck for that region to only have one team.


Right now thoes are the best projections I've seen.

[PMoyer3]

The 8-0 was more just that fact that we were soooo pissed that we went 0-2-1 with them all season and were more fired up for that game than any other game at regionals...sadly. It was moderately close til the end and we scored 4 or 5 in the 3rd period.

But historically the WCRHL bids have been given using the format in my earlier post

[ISFN]

The two other GP DI teams who went to nationals outside of Lindenwood went a combined 1-8-0



Yea and if only we played with last years teams/players.

Teams change, people move on, you can't base last years results on this years teams, Maybe they didnt bring their full squads you never know but seeing how it is in STL this year I'm almost positive they will have everyone.

[PMoyer3]

Thanks ISFN...:D
oh and at the Anaheim nationals i correctly guessed the result of all of the round robin games except 2 i think....I NEVER GOT MY SHIRT!!!!

[SnakeHandler]

those projections were good, but you've gotta consider U of Florida as at least an alternate... they were only given 16 games this year for some reason, along with who knows what other excuses......... at least an alternate i say.

[PMoyer3]

Do i get a prize if i win again!???

[WeakSauce]

Revision- Totally see your point- this division is quite hard to judge because it was in such parity all year long...

I understand that Chapman was shorthanded during that streak of losses, but every team goes through stuff like that, you cant really take it into account, there's too many variables- you gotta look at the end product.


For what its worth, I had the privilege of watching the UC Davis vs. San Bernardino game, and it was tied 2-2 with about 4 minutes left, it was a close game that could have gone either way. No idea what happened against Cal Poly SLO, but as PMoyer3 pointed out, it was the first time that Cal Poly beat them all year (4 games)...

[WeakSauce]

In a slightly related matter, does anyone know what the rate of alternates actually going to nationals has been the last few years, in any division?

How often does it actually happen?

[ISFN]

In a slightly related matter, does anyone know what the rate of alternates actually going to nationals has been the last few years, in any division?

How often does it actually happen?


Well I know last year Mizzou was an Alt and attended, thats all that I know of.

[William Bourque]

No DII Alternates have made it into the tourney the past two seasons

[paddymac]

ECRHA
Rochester IT
Suny Buffalo
Towson
Rhode Island

Great Plains
Lindenwood


Midwest
Eastern Michigan
Michigan St.
Michigan
Ohio State
Purdue

Rocky Mountain
Colorado St.

Southeastern
Florida International
NC State
Central Florida
Florida


Southwestern
North Texas
Texas

West
CSU San Bernardino
UC Irvine
Cal Poly SLO

Alt
Missouri-Columbia
UC Davis
UConn
Western Michigan

It's tough to make these picks. I'm not sure how the Rocky Mountain auto-bid is handed out, but I don't agree with two teams coming from that region. My last team in was Purdue narrowly ahead of Mizzou. They've had a good season and are not a team that I would want to play against at Nats. They aren't explosive offensively by any means, but they are tough to score against. Knowing Illinois and ISU from being former MCRHL bottom feeders and never really being terribly impressed by other DI GP teams other then Lindenwood, I can't see another GP team making the cut.

[Dave Garland]

When do bids actually come out?


I think Great Plains will end up with three D-1 teams....not really my opinion but it is what I think will happen.

[WeakSauce]

Paddymac- Those look pretty solid to me. definately a tough choice when it gets down there to #19-21ish, but I think I'd switch Purdue and Mizzou, if only because it is their home rink, and they came in second to Lindenwood at regionals, where Purdue was 0-2. Plus I can't see 5 teams coming from the MCRHL... but just my opinion.

[ninerfan55]

i definitly see what you are saying about south florida. i didnt really have them as the number one alternate they were just the first i thought of. i definitly think florida deserves a bid without a doubt. they shouldnt have lost to fsu but they have plenty of quality wins, having really lost any players and there past play at nationals(not saying that merits a bid) should give them the benefit of the doubt. i definitly see youre point though about usf.

[boring]

In a slightly related matter, does anyone know what the rate of alternates actually going to nationals has been the last few years, in any division?

How often does it actually happen?


if your a D1 alternate, dont expect to get invited until the week before nationals...its happened twice for mizzou, and its too hard to book a hotel and flight in a week to get everyone there

[DGlass]

Get ready to drive through the night. That drive to St. Louis was one of the most memorable experiences of my life....and the ride back.