D1 Nationals bids (predictions)

[SnakeHandler]

East
Rhode Island
Rutgers
Stonybrook
Towson
Penn St
Buffalo

GP
Lindenwood
UMSL
Missouri -Columbia

MW
Michigan St
Ohio St
Michigan
Eastern Michigan

SE
UF
FIU
UCF

Rocky
Colorado St

SW
N Texas

West
UC Irvine
Long Beach

[William Bourque]

Currently I see things going like this, but it's all subject to change based on regional performance.


ECRHA - Stony Brook (auto), Buffalo, Rhode Island
On the Bubble: Rutgers, Towson, Penn State

Great Plains - Lindenwood (auto), UMSL,
On the Bubble - Missouri - Columbia

Midwest - Michigan State (auto), Ohio State, Michigan, Eastern Michigan
On the Bubble - Purdue

Rocky-
On the Bubble - Colorado State, Colorado, Northern Colorado

Southeast - Florida (auto)
On the Bubble - Florida International, Central Florida, Florida State, South Florida, James Madison

Southwest - North Texas (auto)
On the Bubble - Texas

West - UC Irvine (auto), Long Beach State, Cal Poly SLO
On the Bubble - UNLV, UC Davis, UC Santa Barbara

So the way i see it, 14 teams have clinched a spot at nationals, with another that will clinch at regionals, leaving 5 at large spots remaining in the country for 17 teams that are in striking distance of nationals. Additionally, any team that is listed as a bubble team that wins regional will steal another spot from those available...
Edit/Delete Message

[hockeydude92]

Currently I see things going like this, but it's all subject to change based on regional performance.


ECRHA - Stony Brook (auto), Buffalo, Rhode Island
On the Bubble: Rutgers, Towson, Penn State

Great Plains - Lindenwood (auto), UMSL,
On the Bubble - Missouri - Columbia

Midwest - Michigan State (auto), Ohio State, Michigan, Eastern Michigan
On the Bubble - Purdue

Rocky-
On the Bubble - Colorado State, Colorado, Northern Colorado


Southeast - Florida (auto)
On the Bubble - Florida International, Central Florida, Florida State, South Florida, James Madison

Southwest - North Texas (auto)
On the Bubble - Texas

West - UC Irvine (auto), Long Beach State, Cal Poly SLO
On the Bubble - UNLV, UC Davis, UC Santa Barbara

So the way i see it, 14 teams have clinched a spot at nationals, with another that will clinch at regionals, leaving 5 at large spots remaining in the country for 17 teams that are in striking distance of nationals. Additionally, any team that is listed as a bubble team that wins regional will steal another spot from those available...
Edit/Delete Message

Bourque I know your the head statistician of ECRHA, and don't understand why people try to debate with you about bids and rankings, but what happens if the teams you gave auto bids to don't win regionals considering Lindenwood is the only team that is undefeated. Such as Michigan State, Stony Brook, UC Irvine, Lindenwood, U N.Texas, and Florida. Could you explain the breakdown of different scenarios if teams don't perform well at regionals for their respective divisions.

Thanks

[William Bourque]

Well the only region i know is what would happen from the ECRHA. At the fall ACC meeting this year we voted on changing the way we determined bids to nationals. In past years the order you finished at regionals determined the way you were presented to the committee. If you won regionals you were given the auto-bid.

This season, the teams that wins regionals will get the auto-bid for the ECRHA and every teams after that would be ranked based on regular season record and regional performance. Wins during the regular season will count for 2 points towards a teams total, and a win during the regional tournament will give a teams 3 points.

Additionally, a scenario that could play out in another region is that follows. Say the SCHL is most likely going to get one bid from the region to make nationals (not that this is fact). If North Texas who has the best record by far in the region fails to win the auto-bid, it can create a two team region because the team that wins the auto-bid could be 5-14-1 but win their way into that national championship tournament, see Duke a few years ago. This would mean North Texas would most likely get an at-large bid to nationals.

People can debate me all they want, i am not the end all of facts when it comes to anything. I just like to use stats and history to back up my arguments, I have always been fond of stats, mostly because you can manipulate them to say what you want. Dilbert says it the best, "63% of all statistics are made up... including this one."

[Leaferguy]

Dilbert's also a fictional cartoon character...

Just sayin'

[William Bourque]

Dilbert's also a fictional cartoon character...

Just sayin'

Lies ALL Lies...

Please don't ruin my dream of one day meeting him...:mad:

[Leaferguy]

Amato should be down for Regionals, no?


hahahaha I'm not funny.

[DGlass]

Bill Bourque is also a fictional character.

[RichardGraham]

Hi Bill,

Nah, Mark Twain said it best, though 72 percent of pundits agree that he didn't say it first, "There are three kinds of lies. Lies, damn lies, and statistics." ;)

[William Bourque]

Hi Bill,

Nah, Mark Twain said it best, though 72 percent of pundits agree that he didn't say it first, "There are three kinds of lies. Lies, damn lies, and statistics." ;)

I like that...:cool:

[WeakSauce]

Currently I see things going like this, but it's all subject to change based on regional performance.


ECRHA - Stony Brook (auto), Buffalo, Rhode Island
On the Bubble: Rutgers, Towson, Penn State

Great Plains - Lindenwood (auto), UMSL,
On the Bubble - Missouri - Columbia

Midwest - Michigan State (auto), Ohio State, Michigan, Eastern Michigan
On the Bubble - Purdue

Rocky-
On the Bubble - Colorado State, Colorado, Northern Colorado

Southeast - Florida (auto)
On the Bubble - Florida International, Central Florida, Florida State, South Florida, James Madison

Southwest - North Texas (auto)
On the Bubble - Texas

West - UC Irvine (auto), Long Beach State, Cal Poly SLO
On the Bubble - UNLV, UC Davis, UC Santa Barbara

So the way i see it, 14 teams have clinched a spot at nationals, with another that will clinch at regionals, leaving 5 at large spots remaining in the country for 17 teams that are in striking distance of nationals. Additionally, any team that is listed as a bubble team that wins regional will steal another spot from those available...
Edit/Delete Message


Your predictions look solid.

I can only really comment on the WCRHL, which looks about right. The only critique that I have is that I believe UNLV is more of a lock then Cal Poly SLO right now.

UNLV = 8-2 in their last 10
Cal Poly SLO = 5-3-2 in their last 10
UNLV has more points, and the last time the two played, Cal Poly SLO lost to UNLV handily, 9-3.


On an unrelated note, does anyone really know what the chances are that RMCRHA & SCHL send more than one team?

[boring]

so now that regionals are over, does everyone feel the same way about their predictions?

[hockeydude92]

so now that regionals are over, does everyone feel the same way about their predictions?

im sticking with this boring
1. Buffalo (East)
2. UMSL (Great Plains)
3. Colorado State (Rocky Mountains)
4. North Texas (Southwest)
5. Central Florida (Southeast)
6. Michigan State (Midwest)
7. UC Irvine (West)
8. Lindenwood
9. Stony Brook
10. Eastern Michigan
11. Colorado
12. Texas Tech
13. Florida
14. Long Beach State
15. Towson
16. Rutgers
17. Rhode Island
18. Florida International
19. Ohio State
20. University of Michigan

BOLD denotes regionals champs and autobids
The last 13 have done something to deserve a spot in Colorado Springs

[William Bourque]

so now that regionals are over, does everyone feel the same way about their predictions?


ECRHA - Stony Brook, Buffalo, Towson, Rutgers
On the Bubble: Rhode Island, Penn State

Great Plains - Lindenwood, UMSL
On the Bubble - Missouri - Columbia

Midwest - Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Eastern Michigan


Rocky- Colorado State
On the Bubble - Colorado

Southeast - Florida, Central Florida
On the Bubble - Florida International

Southwest - North Texas
On the Bubble - Texas Tech

West - UC Irvine , Long Beach State, Cal Poly SLO
On the Bubble - UNLV


I think this is the 20, plus 4 others. Something will need to give.

7 fighting for 3 spots...

[jlundh7uri]

I think that its weird that URI is being looked at as a bubble team for nationals. When you beat Stony Brook twice in a matter of 5 hours during playoff time I think that alone speaks for itself. We definitely had one of if not the toughest schedule for regionals. Not to mention finishing 2nd at Nationals in St. Louis last season and having for the most part the same team this season. Not many people give the amount of credit that is due for the team that we have. It would be a shame if we weren't competing at Nationals.

[DGlass]

URI is listed as a bubble team because they need the other four teams listed as "locks" to get in first (Buffalo, Stony Brook, Towson, Rutgers) before they can even be considered.

[William Bourque]

I think that its weird that URI is being looked at as a bubble team for nationals. When you beat Stony Brook twice in a matter of 5 hours during playoff time I think that alone speaks for itself. We definitely had one of if not the toughest schedule for regionals. Not to mention finishing 2nd at Nationals in St. Louis last season and having for the most part the same team this season. Not many people give the amount of credit that is due for the team that we have. It would be a shame if we weren't competing at Nationals.

Trust me, there was no doubt that if you got on the board you would be selected. The question was if you would make it on the board and you did and im glad you did.